Eastern Europe · Reading of 4 November 2026
Russia and Ukraine
Rung 5 · Open war→ Holding this month
Europe's largest war since 1945 enters its fifth winter. Russia is striking Ukraine's power grid at record scale while losing ground at the front. A new round of talks is set for Abu Dhabi.
Ukraine and western Russia on a winter night, seen from the International Space Station. NASA
Pressure to climb10/16 · High
- Nuclear arms
- Great powers
- Unlimited aims
- Narrow sea
- Treaty trigger
- No off-ramp
- Shooting now
- Talks broken
What the markets sayas of 4 Nov
A Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement by the end of 202612%A Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 202755%Odds from Polymarket, a prediction market. They are bets, not facts, and they update live.
Coming up
- 10–11 NovUS-brokered Russia–Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi, the first round since FebruaryConfirmed
- 18–19 NovAPEC summit in Shenzhen: Putin and Trump are expected, and a three-way meeting with Xi has been floatedConfirmed
Where it sits
8General nuclear war
7Nuclear use
6Great powers collide
4Limited strikes
1Rivalry
- 24 Feb 2022Russia launches its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
- Oct 2026Russian forces lose ground for a second month in a row and suffer their heaviest monthly losses of the war, according to ISW.
- 3 Nov 2026A mass drone and missile strike hits energy sites in nine regions; a hospital in Kharkiv is struck.
- 3 Nov 2026A strike hits a substation that serves the Khmelnytskyi nuclear plant.
- 10–11 Nov 2026Trilateral US–Russia–Ukraine talks are scheduled in Abu Dhabi.
↑ What pushes it up
- Strikes near nuclear power plants
- A winter campaign aimed at making cities unlivable
- Western air-defense deliveries running short
↓ What pulls it down
- The Abu Dhabi talks
- Local ceasefires, such as the one proposed around Kherson
- Rising costs for Russia's economy and army
Sources (4)
Since January 2022
- Jan 2022Rung 2 · CrisisRussian forces mass on Ukraine's borders
- Feb 2022Rung 5 · Open warFull-scale invasion
- Nov 2026Rung 5 · Open warFifth winter of the war; talks set for Abu Dhabi
Earlier placements are retrospective: made in November 2026 with the same rules.
The other flashpoints