Persian Gulf & Strait of Hormuz · Reading of 4 November 2026
Iran, Israel and the United States
Rung 5 · Open war↑ Climbing this month
The war that began on 28 February has moved from the air to the sea. Talks keep resuming and collapsing, while October brought the most attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz since the war began.
The Strait of Hormuz at night: Iran above, Oman's Musandam Peninsula below. International Space Station. NASA
Pressure to climb13/16 · Severe
- Nuclear arms
- Great powers
- Unlimited aims
- Narrow sea
- Treaty trigger
- No off-ramp
- Shooting now
- Talks broken
What the markets sayas of 4 Nov
Hormuz traffic back to normal by December 3110%The US invades Iran before 202712%Odds from Polymarket, a prediction market. They are bets, not facts, and they update live.
Coming up
- NovemberThe IAEA Board of Governors' regular November session in Vienna, its first since reporting Iran to the UN Security CouncilExpected
Where it sits
8General nuclear war
7Nuclear use
6Great powers collide
4Limited strikes
1Rivalry
- 28 Feb 2026The United States and Israel launch strikes on Iran. Iran's supreme leader is killed.
- Apr–Jun 2026A ceasefire mediated by Pakistan takes effect in April; in June the presidents of the US and Iran sign a memorandum to end the war.
- 8 Jul 2026The deal collapses after attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Oct 2026Ship attacks in and near Hormuz reach their highest level of the war. Qatari mediators hand Iran a new proposal.
- 3–4 Nov 2026The US strikes an anti-aircraft site on Qeshm Island near Hormuz. Iran calls the US reply to its conditions for reopening the strait unconvincing, as Qatar relays proposals between the two.
↑ What pushes it up
- More tankers hit by mines or missiles
- US strikes widening beyond targets on the Hormuz coast
- Iran concluding that only a nuclear weapon guarantees its survival
↓ What pulls it down
- Qatari mediation and a proposed plan to reopen Hormuz
- Signs of US flexibility on uranium enrichment
- Oil flows through Hormuz recovering toward pre-war levels
Sources (6)
Since January 2022
- Jan 2022Rung 3 · Gray zoneShadow war: proxies, sabotage and strikes at sea
- Apr 2024Rung 4 · Limited strikesIran's first direct strike on Israel, and Israel's reply
- Oct 2024Rung 4 · Limited strikesA second round of direct strikes
- Jun 2025Rung 5 · Open warTwelve-day war; US strikes Iranian nuclear sites
- Jul 2025Rung 3 · Gray zoneCeasefire; back to pressure and proxies
- Feb 2026Rung 5 · Open warUS and Israel strike Iran; war begins
- Apr 2026Rung 4 · Limited strikesCeasefire mediated by Pakistan
- Jul 2026Rung 5 · Open warCeasefire collapses after attacks on shipping
Earlier placements are retrospective: made in November 2026 with the same rules.
The other flashpoints