Taiwan Strait · Reading of 4 November 2026
China and Taiwan
Rung 2 · Crisis→ Holding this month
No shots, but steady pressure. Beijing pairs diplomacy with drills, coast guard patrols and rehearsals of a blockade. US commanders say Beijing wants its military able to take Taiwan by 2027.
Taiwan, with China's coast and the lights of boats at sea beyond, at night from the International Space Station, 2014. NASA
Pressure to climb9/16 · Elevated
- Nuclear arms
- Great powers
- Unlimited aims
- Narrow sea
- Treaty trigger
- No off-ramp
- Shooting now
- Talks broken
What the markets sayas of 4 Nov
China invades Taiwan by the end of 20261.8%China invades Taiwan by the end of 20279.5%Odds from Polymarket, a prediction market. They are bets, not facts, and they update live.
Coming up
- 18–19 NovAPEC summit in Shenzhen, with Trump and Xi both expectedConfirmed
- 14–15 DecG20 leaders' summit at Doral, near MiamiConfirmed
Where it sits
8General nuclear war
7Nuclear use
6Great powers collide
4Limited strikes
1Rivalry
- Late 2025China's "Justice Mission 2025" exercises add to the pressure around Taiwan.
- Jan–Jul 2026Chinese military activity near Taiwan is relatively low by recent standards.
- 12 Oct 2026China announces a new wave of live-fire drills across several seas. Taiwan says it is monitoring closely.
- 2027The year by which, according to US commanders, Xi Jinping wants the PLA capable of seizing Taiwan.
↑ What pushes it up
- Blockade or quarantine rehearsals turning into the real thing
- A collision at sea or in the air
- A US–China trade or technology rupture
↓ What pulls it down
- Regular US–China leader contact
- Taiwan's own defenses raising the cost of any attack
- Economic ties that both sides still depend on
Sources (3)
Since January 2022
- Jan 2022Rung 2 · CrisisDaily incursions into Taiwan's air defense zone
- Aug 2022Rung 2 · CrisisLive-fire drills around Taiwan after a US Speaker's visit
- May 2024Rung 2 · Crisis"Joint Sword" drills after Taiwan's inauguration
- Dec 2025Rung 2 · Crisis"Justice Mission 2025" exercises
Earlier placements are retrospective: made in November 2026 with the same rules.
The other flashpoints